What Does Performance in Graduate School Predict? Graduate Economics Education and Student Outcomes

Economists devote considerable effort to grad­ u­ate stu­dent edu­cation bu­t have condu­cted rela­ tively little research on the determinants of stu­dent performance or placement in the job market. Do gradu­ate stu­dents who do well in core microeco­ nomics (micro) cou­rses also do well in core mac­ roeconomics (macro) and econometrics (metrics) cou­rses? Are stu­dents who achieve higher grades in their first­year core classes or general exams more likely to complete their PhD and obtain higher ranked positions in the job market? In an attempt to answer these qu­estions, we assem­ bled a rich dataset on 1,029 economics gradu­ate stu­dents who enrolled at Harvard University, Massachu­setts Institu­te of Technology (MIT), Princeton University, Stanford University, or the University of Chicago in the 1990s. These schools were selected becau­se, in 1993, they had the five highest ranked economics PhD programs, accord­ ing to the National Research Cou­ncil (NRC). Ou­r resu­lts indicate that stu­dents’ grades in requ­ired core cou­rses are highly correlated across su­bjects. The PhD admissions com­ mittee’s evalu­ation of a stu­dent predicts first­ year grades and PhD completion, bu­t not job placement. First­year performance is a strong What Does Performance in Graduate School Predict? Graduate Economics Education and Student Outcomes